Monday, January 20, 2014

Predicting Which Best Picture Nominee Will Win the Oscar Based on Movie Titles

The Oscar nominations came out on Thursday morning, and as of now, it's anybody's race. Some say 12 Years a Slave has it in the bag, while others think American Hustle will snatch the Best Picture trophy. There's no one way to know for sure — does the Academy weigh emotional impact? Flashy performances? The film's lasting message?
How about titles? Yes, you can tell a lot about a film by its title, and about its Oscar chances, too. We've compiled some handy data about each Best Picture nominee's title and what it says about the film's chances come time to hand out the awards.

AMERICAN HUSTLE
Sydney Prosser (Amy Adams, left) and Irving Rosenfeld (Christian Bale) attempt to scam an under cover agent in Columbia Picutres' AMERICAN HUSTLE.Columbia Pictures
Movies with the word "America" in their titles...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 2 (An American in ParisAmerican Beauty) 
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 2 (America, AmericaAmerican Graffiti)
Movies whose titles refers to a crime or act of duplicity...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 2 (Mutiny on the BountyThe Sting)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 11 (The RacketShe Done Him WrongImitation of LifeLibeled LadyGrand IllusionThe Caine MutinyThe HustlerMutiny on the BountyThe Killing Fields;The FugitiveTraffic)
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, from left: Tom Hanks, Barkhad Abdirahman, 2013. ph: Jasin Boland/Columbia Pictures/courtesy Everett CollectionColumbia Pictures Via Everett Collection
Movies with a main character's surname in their titles...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 10 (The Great ZiegfeldBen-Hur;Tom JonesPattonAnnie HallKramer vs. KramerGandhi;Schindler’s ListForrest GumpShakespeare in Love)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 45 (DisraeliTrader HornArrowsmithThe House of RothschildAlice AdamsCaptain BloodDavid CopperfieldRuggles of Red GapAnthony Adverse;DodsworthMr. Deeds Goes to TownThe Story of Louis Pasteur;The Life of Emile ZolaThe Adventures of Robin HoodGoodbye, Mr. ChipsMr. Smith Goes to WashingtonKitty FoyleCitizen KaneHere Comes Mr. JordanSergeant YorkMrs. MiniverThe Magnificent AmbersonsMadame CurieWilsonMildred PierceJohnny Belinda;Julius CaesarMister RobertsThe Diary of Anne FrankElmer GantryDr. Strangelove or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the BombMary PoppinsDoctor ZhivagoWho’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?Doctor DolittleButch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid;Barry LyndonPrizzi’s HonorJerry MaguireGood Will Hunting;Saving Private RyanErin BrokovichCapoteMichael Clayton;Lincoln)
Movies whose titles include a military rank...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar: 
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...to get nominated for BP, but not win:
 6 (The Smiling LieutenantCaptain BloodCaptains CourageousSergeant York;Saving Private RyanMaster and Commander: The Far Side of the World)
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, from left: Jared Leto, Matthew McConaughey, 2013. ph: Anne Marie Fox/Focus Features/courtesy Everett CollectionFocus Features Via Everett Collection
Movies with a city name in their titles...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 4 (CimarronCasablancaAn American in ParisChicago)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 18 (Hollywood Revue;Shanghai ExpressSan FranciscoIn Old ChicagoThe Philadelphia StoryMr. Smith Goes to WashingtonCasablancaRoman Holiday;Peyton PlaceJudgment and NurembergChinatownNashville;FargoL.A. ConfidentialGangs of New YorkMunichLetters from Iwo JimaMidnight in Paris)
Movies whose titles seem like they should probably have a possessive apostrophe, but don't...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 0
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 4 (Boys TownKings RowDead Poets SocietyHowards End)
GRAVITY
GRAVITY, Sandra Bullock, 2013. Warner Bros. Pictures/courtesy Everett CollectionWarner Bros Via Everett Collection
Movies whose titles are a single intangible noun...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 1 (Crash)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 8 (AlibiSuspicion;CrossfireDeliveranceTrafficAtonementInceptionMoneyball)
Movies whose titles end in "ity"...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 1 (From Here to Eternity)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 3 (Double Indemnity;Atlantic CitySense and Sensibility)
HER
HER, Joaquin Phoenix, 2013, Warner Bros. Pictures/courtesy Everett CollectionWarner Bros Via Everett Collection
Movies whose titles are made up three letters or fewer...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 0
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 4 (ZJFKRayUp)
Movies that have the word "her" in their titles...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 1 (Ben-Hur)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 1 (Hannah and Her Sisters)
NEBRASKA
NEBRASKA, from left: Bruce Dern, Will Forte, 2013. Paramount Pictures/Courtesy Everett CollectionParamount Via Everett Collection
Movies with U.S. state names in their titles...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 0
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 2 (In Old ArizonaMississippi Burning)
*Note: Mr. Smith Goes to Washington and Gangs of New York both refer to cities, not states, and the "Virginia" in Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf is a human woman.
We loved Nebraska, but this is really the only one we could think of for it. Sorry, Alexander Payne. Sorry, everybody.
PHILOMENA
PHILOMENA, from left: Judi Dench, Steve Coogan, 2013. ph: Alex Bailey/Weinstein Company/Courtesy Everett CollectionWeinstein Company Via Everett Collection
Movies whose titles are just a main character's first name...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 5 (Rebecca;HamletMartyGigiOliver!)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 20 (SkippyCleopatraIvanhoeShaneFannyCleopatraAlfieLennyRockyJuliaNorma RaeTessBugsyBabeElizabethSeabiscuitRayJunoPrecious;Hugo)
Movies whose titles were mispronounced by Leonardo DiCaprio on live television...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 0
...to get nominated for BP, but not win:
 0 (There can be only one Philomania.)
12 YEARS A SLAVE
12 Years a SlaveFox Searchlight
Movies with numbers in their titles...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 6 (It Happened One NightAround the World in 80 DaysThe Godfather Part IIOne Flew Over the Cuckoo’s NestMillion Dollar BabySlumdog Millionaire)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 36 (Seventh Heaven;Five Star FinalOne Hour with You42nd StreetThe Private Life of Henry VIIIOne Night of LoveBroadway Melody of 1936A Tale of Two CitiesThree Smart GirlsOne Hundred Men and a GirlFour DaughtersOne Foot in Heaven49th ParallelHenry VMiracle on 34th StreetA Letter to Three WivesTwelve O’Clock HighSeven Brides for Seven BrothersThree Coins in the FountainThe Ten Commandments12 Angry MenThe Defiant OnesA Thousand ClownsAnne of the Thousand DaysFive Easy PiecesBorn on the Fourth of JulyThe Godfather Part IIIFour Weddings and a FuneralApollo 13The Sixth SenseThe Lord of the Rings: The Two TowersDistrict 9127 HoursToy Story 3Zero Dark Thirty)
Movies that refer to a unit of time in their titles...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 2 (The Best Years of Our Lives;Around the World in 80 Days)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 9 (One Hour with You;Lady for a DayThe YearlingThe Longest DayAnne of the Thousand DaysDog Day AfternoonRemains of the DayThe Hours;127 Hours)
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, from left: Katarina Cas, Jonah Hill, Leonardo DiCaprio, Margot Robbie, Jon Bernthal, 2013, ph: Mary Cybulski/Paramount Pictures/courtesy Everett CollectionParamount Via Everett Collection
Movies whose titles include mention of an animal...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar: 
3 (The Deer HunterDances with WolvesThe Silence of the Lambs)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 17 (Of Mice and Men;The Little FoxesThe Maltese FalconThe Ox-Bow IncidentThe Snake PitCat on a Hot Tin RoofTo Kill a MockingbirdThe Lion in WinterOne Flew Over the Cuckoo’s NestDog Day AfternoonThe Elephant ManRaging BullKiss of the Spider WomanCrouching Tiger, Hidden DragonBlack SwanWar Horse)
Movies whose titles include the name of a street...
...to win a Best Picture Oscar:
 1 (The Broadway Melody)
...to get nominated for BP, but not win: 5 (42nd StreetThe Barretts of Wimpole StreetBroadway Melody of 1936Miracle on 34th StreetSunset Boulevard)
Cast your bets, folks. Captain Phillips looks like it has this one locked down.

*Special thanks to Hollywood.com writers Julia Emmanuele and Jordan Smith for helping to compile data and entertaining the madness of this post, and to our CTO Greg Zimerman for recovering hours of work after my Word Doc crashed. You're a hero, Greg.

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