Box office preview: Gravity or Carrie

It’s prom night in October, and although horror remake Carrie is eying a solid debut, the film will have to work some major box office magic to prevent Gravity from being crowned queen for a third weekend. Carrie isn’t the only new wide release hitting theaters — there’s also Escape Plan and The Fifth Estate, whose prospects are decidedly dimmer.

Here’s how the box office might shake out this weekend:

1. Gravity – $34 million
Sandra Bullock and George Clooney are headed to another massive weekend at the box office. Gravity only fell by 23 percent last weekend — and that was against the opening of Captain Phillips. This time around, there aren’t any well-reviewed adult dramas attracting attention, and Gravity may fall by an even slimmer 20 percent to about $34 million for a remarkable $173 million total.

2. Carrie – $26 million
With Halloween right around the corner, Sony’s $30 million horror movie is poised to play well with young horror fans — and perhaps adults who want to see how the remake of the 1976 classic compares to the original. Chloe Grace Moretz isn’t a proven box office draw (though Julianne Moore may draw older crowds as Carrie’s religious mother), but Sony has marketed the film heavily — in part by releasing a viral stunt that has already garnered 41 million views — and the Carrie brand name has major heft. Playing in more than 3,000 theaters, the film could scare up a $26 million debut.

3. Captain Phillips – $19 million
After a robust debut, Tom Hanks’ comeback drama will likely fall by about 35 percent to $19 million, which would give the $55 million Sony film a $55 million total — well more than his last three dramas, Cloud Atlas ($27.1 million), Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close ($31.9 million), and Larry Crowne ($35.6 million).

4. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 – $9.5 million
Still no new family competition to worry about! The animated picture could decline 30 percent to $9.5 million in its fourth weekend, which would give it just over $92 million total.

5. Escape Plan – $8 million
Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger have both already faced bombs this year with Bullet to the Head($9.5 million total) and The Last Stand ($12.1 million total), respectively, and the combination of the two aging action heroes isn’t likely to alter their box office fortune substantially. In other words, The Expendables, this is not. Their prison-escape thriller, for which distributor Summit would not confirm a budget, may lock up just $8 million from 2,883 theaters this weekend.

Outside the top five, Benedict Cumberbatch’s virtually buzz-free Wikileaks thriller The Fifth Estate will likely bomb with about $5 million from 1,769 theaters. Stay tuned to EW all weekend to see how each film fares!